Crescent Research publishes work on the mathematical foundations of healthcare payment, the analytical infrastructure of healthcare receivables markets, and the structural mispricings that emerge from inherited methodological error. Methodology notes develop the theoretical apparatus; field notes apply the apparatus to current events and deal-relevant analysis. The research program is in service of a single thesis: healthcare payment is the largest unbuilt pricing oracle in the United States, and its construction requires the analytical rigor that has been absent from the field’s prior infrastructure.
The theoretical apparatus.
A note on separating contractual truth from payer-behavioral residual. The realized payment R is decomposable into a deterministic contractual quantity C and a probabilistic residual B. The two admit incompatible methodologies.
A note on the structural information loss in extrapolating one hundred claims to one hundred thousand when the underlying function is computable in closed form. The three constraints that justified sampling have lifted; the methodology has not updated.
A note on the structural conditions under which neuro-symbolic systems work, the parallel between formal mathematics and healthcare claims adjudication, and the self-improving loop that emerges when the symbolic component graduates patterns from the neural residual.
The apparatus in application.
A line-by-line read on the 2026 changes. The conversion factor increase is more than offset by structural changes that produce 7-8% declines in 2026 payment for facility-based ortho codes.
The largest synergy in physician practice rollups, and the methodology that systematically mismeasures it. Portfolio-average rate ratios diverge from the deterministic answer by 40-60% in either direction.
Behavioral patterns in physician practice claims data and what standard diligence cannot see. Two practices with identical headline financials can have very different deal risk profiles.
publication cadence
New entries are published roughly monthly. To receive new notes by email, send a note to research@crescentintel.com.